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投资行为将会限制中国的经济增长吗?
      一、引论
  在2002年3月的政府工作报告中,朱róng@①基总理提出“我们必须尽快为投融资体制的改革建立和实施相应的计划”。(注:见http://.cn/english/archiveen/27702.htm。)这一直接的陈述表明,二十多年的经济改革几乎还没有开始涉及到这些领域的主要问题。而本文将要指出是,投资体制有可能成为
  人们普遍认识到

表2)。这些数据说明房屋的建设有很长的时滞,而将整幢大楼出售往往需要更长的时间。到1998年底在建房屋总面积合计达486百万m[2],而从1998年到2002年6月累计竣工和出售房屋总面积为682百万m[2],也就是前一数字的140%。假定1998年所有在建项目均被完成和出售,那么这些数据说明从1999年开始的工程到2002年6月仅有7.7%被建设完毕并出售。所以在
  表2 商业用房的建设与销售
  附图
  注:数据从1998年开始,不计此前所有未完成项目的积压待付的订货。在建面积包括此前已竣工的房屋面积和现在正在建设中的面积。计算时假定没有中途被放弃的项目。
  资料来源:monthly indicators no.1(2001):38;no.11(2001):34;no.7(2002):38。
    5、无法归还的债务
  闲置的工厂和“半拉子”工程无法挣得收入从而也无法向投资者或贷款者支付利润。wwW.11665.COm失败的项目投资必然代表了一种重要的商业损失和坏帐的来源。在此我们并不争论

民族,消除贫困和其他政治因素,然后再考虑收益率”(zhou wangjun,2002)。
  在投入国家发展基金时,
  因而,“

nergy, 2002, energy scheme fills new fuel chinadaily. com.cn, 11 june 2002
[23 august 2002]. [available from .cn/news/2002-06-11/73319.html].
  geng hong, 2000, "important current developments in the management of
enterprise assets and finances," guoyou zichan guanli[state asset management], no. 11, pp. 15-20.
  gilley, bruce, and d. murphey, 2001, "why china needs a real central bank
? "far eastern economic review, 24 may, pp. 47-52.
  gong zhengzheng, 2001, "dongfeng aims to clinch tie-ups," china daily business weekly, 13 march, 24.
  huang, kai, jutao shu, and houcai shen, 1999,"positive analysis of the
reasons for enterprise investment errors," touzi yanjiu[investment research],no. 8, pp. 10-13.
  investment yearbook, 1997, zhongguo guding zichan touzi tongji nianjian
1950-1995 [china yearbook of fixed asset and investment statistics, 1950-1995], beijing: zhongguo tongji chubanshe.
  jefferson, g.h., thomas g. rawski, l. wang and y.x. zheng, 2000,
"ownership, productivity change, and financial performance in chinese
industry," journal of comparative economics, 28, no. 4, pp.786-813.
  kang li, and dong wang, 2002, "the role of capital market in the
strategic restructuring of china's economy," touzi yanjiu[investment research], no. 3, pp. 21-26.
  li jianlin, 1998, "economy good, despite severe crisis and flood,"
china daily. no. 4.
  li xiaoxi, 2000, "economic prospects for 2000," zhongguo gongye jingji[china industrial economy], no. 2, pp.16-21.
  liu fan, 2002, "enterprises pursue high-class blue collar workers." zhongguo tongji[china statistics], no. 4, pp.
35-36.
  liu guoguang, 2000, "an analysis of china's economic growth situation,"
jingji yanjiu[economic research], no. 6, pp. 3-10, 76.
  mi jianguo, yang li, and jinlao huang, 2001, "the challenges from the
opening of banking service market in china," china development review,3, no. 4, pp. 83-96.
  ministry of finance, enterprise division, 2001, "major elements of the 2001
work plan for the enterprise division in the ministry of finance," guoyou zichan
guanli[state asset management],no. 3, pp. 4-7.
  ministry of finance, enterprise division, 2002, "ministry of finance enterprise
division work priorities for 2002," guoyou zichan guanli, no. 3, pp. 4-6.
  monthly indicators, china monthly economic indicators, beijing: national bureau of
statistics.
  qiu yuemin, bing, li and youcai. cai, 2000, "reasons for losses and
suggestions for policy at state- owned commercial banks," jingji gongzuozhe xuexi ziliao[study materials fo

r economic work], no. 44, pp. 1-26.
  rawski, thomas g., 2001a, china's gdp statistics - a case of caveat lector? [available from 编辑整理" href="" target="_blank">
china economic review,12, no. 4, pp. 347-354.
  rawski, thomas g., forthcoming, "measuring china's recent gdp growth:
where do we stand?" jingjixue jikan [china economic quarterly].
  su, tonghua, 2000, yinhang weijilun [on bank crises], beijing: zhongguo
jinrong chubanshe.
  wang, limin. 2001. "on the theory and practice of the fiscal sector's support
of enterprise reform and development," guoyou zichan guanli[state asset management], no. 2, pp. 43-45.
  wang, ling, 2002, "industry stimulus plan, "china daily, 30 july, 5.
  wang, tongsan et al., 1999, "looking at china's economic situation from
the growth of industry in liuzhou", zhongguo gongye jingji[china industrial economics], no. 4, pp. 13-18.
  yearbook, 2000, zhongguo tongji nianjian 2000 [china statistic yearbook 2000],
beijing: zhongguo tongji chubanshe.
  yearbook, 2001, zhongguo tongji nianjian 2001 [china statistics yearbook 2001],
beijing: zhongguo tongji chubanshe.
  zhang, wenkui, 2001, "policy proposals for large state-owned investment companies participating in reduction of state-owned shares," china development review, 3, no. 1, pp. 37-49.
  zhao, huanxin, 2000, "state firms turned around by reforms, "china daily,
12 december.
  zhou, wangjun, 2002, "suggestions for the reform of project analysis for
railway construction funds," jiage lilun yu shijian [price theory and practice],
no. 5, pp. 29-30.
  (原文为英文,由吴桂英翻译整理)
  字库未存字注释:
  @①原字左为金右为容
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