in modern strategic management and planning, swot analysis
is a widely known diagnostic tool. swot analysis refers to
understanding the strength and weakness of the competitors
relative to oneself, and realising the opportunities and
threats that the environment may impact on one's business.
interestingly, swot analysis was already advocated by sun
tzu more than 2,000 years ago when he said :

　"know your enemy, know yourself, and your victory will not
be threatened.

   know the weather, know the terrain, and your victory will
be complete.

　in fact, "know your enemy, know yourself" is probably the
most well-known phrase in sun tzu's art of war. it is also
the most cited phrase. even mao tse-tung was known to say,
" know your enemy, know yourself; hundred battles, hundred
won". similarly, many japanese samurai warriors in the past
had quoted aspects of this particular famous phrase by sun
tzu. in my lectures to executives around the world, i have
often used this phrase to argue that what we now commonly
called swot analysis is not a modern "invention" from the
western world. rather, it originated in china more than
2,000 years ago. it is a pity that the chinese have not
been able to exploit the wisdom that underlies this saying
by sun tzu. let me explain.

　"know your enemy, know yourself" is tantamount to knowing
one's strengths and weaknesses relative to those whom we are
fighting against (e.g. the competitors, in the case of
business). similarly, "know the weather, know the terrain"
is tantamount to knowing the opportunities and threats posed
by the environment. they are the external or uncontrollable
factors. interestingly, in business we also have such
external factors that affect the way we do things. for
example, we often talk about the business climate (the
weather) and the physical or infrastructural factors (the
terrain), and how they can impact on the conduct of
business. thus, while it is very apparent that while the
infrastructural factors are in asia's favour right now (two
new world class international airports have just been opened
in malaysia and hongkong), the business climate has been
dampened by the financial crisis that began in july 1997.
ironically, many of these external factors are beyond the
control of any single country.

　besides understanding the direct application to swot
analysis, what is interesting to note is that sun tzu
apparently placed more emphasis on understanding the enemy
and oneself first. this is not only evident in the
quotation cited earlier, but is also supported by another of
sun tzu's saying:

　"he who has a thorough knowledge of the enemy and himself
is bound to win in all battles.

　he who knows himself but not the enemy has only an even
chance of winning.

　he who kno

ws not the enemy and himself is bound to perish
in all battles."

　the need to place greater emphasis on understanding the
enemy and oneself may not be very apparent to many readers.
however, on closer reflection and analysis, there is
profound logic in sun tzu's arguments. in war, and business
is no different, the probability of winning or losing
depends a lot on whom you are fighting against. you may be
very strong, but if your competitor is much stronger than
you, you become weaker by comparison. the chances of
winning are then greatly diminished. in other words,
absolute strengths alone do not determine the outcome of a
competition. rather, winning or losing is based more on
relative strengths. what is important to recognise is that
your strengths or your weaknesses do not change overnight.
in other words, they remain relatively constant or static.
in contrast, in any competitive situation, whether you are
weaker or stronger will be determined by your competitors
(or enemies in the case of war). if your competitors are
weaker today, you are stronger. however, you will become
weaker in the face of a stronger competitor! in essence,
competitive forces are dynamic and changing all the time.
by focusing on the competitive forces, you will be "forced"
to be more responsive, adaptive and flexible. in the
process, the management of change and learning how to
overcome changes will become an intrinsic part of your
behaviour and strategy development. this is what generals
in war and senior executives are trained to do!
unfortunately, in actual operations or competitive
situations, many generals and senior executives fall short
of their training!

　there are other reasons to focus on the competitors first
rather than oneself. through detailed analysis of the
competitors, it is possible to win even if you are weak!
this can be done by avoiding the strengths of the
competitors. in fact, this was exactly what the japanese
manufacturers did in the 1950s and 1960s.

　　　　　　　　　　　　(part one of two)

孙子的swot分析

　　在现代的战略管理和规划中，swot分析是一个众所周知的诊断工
具。WWW.11665.cOmswot指的是摸清对手相对于自己的强处(strengths)和弱点
(weakness)，并掌握企业在这样的环境下，有什么机会
(opportunities)和威胁(threats)。有趣的是，早在2000多年以前，
孙子就主张要做swot分析了。他说：

　　知彼知已，胜乃不殆；

　　知天知地，胜乃不穷。

　　说实在的，“知己知彼”很可能是《孙子兵法》中最脍炙人口的
一句话，也最常被引用。连毛泽东都说过要“知己知彼，百战百胜”
。过去日本有很多武士，也特别喜欢引用孙子的这个讲法。

　　我到全世界各地跟执行人员讲课，则多次用它来辩论，说一般所
讲的swot分析法，并不是西方世界的现代“发明”，而是源自2000多
年以前的中国。唯一可惜的，是中国人并没有充分运用孙子这句话的
智慧。让我来解释。

　　“知彼知已”等于是了解本身相对于敌人的强处和弱点（在商业
环境中，敌人就是竞争对手）。同样的，“知天知地”等于是了解环
境所设下的机会和威胁。它们是外在，无法控制的因素。

　　很有意思的是在商业领域里，也处处存在着这些影响我们行事的
外在因素。例如，我们便常把企业气候（天）和实质或基础因素（地
）挂在嘴上，说它们怎样左右我们的商业行为。

　　因此我们可以说：亚洲的基础因素目前明显是有利（马来西亚和
香港两个新的世界级国际机场刚刚启用）的，但1997年7月金融危机
爆发以来，企业气候却相当低沉。很反讽的是目前很多的外在因素，
都不是任何一个国家所能控制的。

　　我们不仅要懂得swot分析法的直接运用，还

特别要注意孙子对知
己知彼的重视。这点可从上面的引述中看出来。另外孙子也说过：

　　知彼知己者，百战不殆；

　　不知彼而知己，一胜一负；

　　不知彼，不知己，每战必殆。

　　很多读者可能不太容易看出了解敌人和自己的重要性。不过深一
层思考和分析后，就会觉得孙子的提法有很周密的逻辑。战争和做生
意没有两样，胜败的机率经常要看你是和谁对上手。你可以很有实力
，但对手如果比你强上好几倍，相对来说你就被比下去了，胜算也就
大大减少。换句话说，决定谁胜出的不只是绝对实力，更多反而是相
对实力。

　　自己的强处和弱点，不是一夜之间能改变的，这点非认清楚不可
。换句话说，它们相对的稳定、静止。形成强烈对比的，是在任何竞
争环境中，你会更强还是更弱主要要看竞争者（或战场上的敌人）。
今天如果你的竞争者转弱，你就强过了他；一旦遇上的是更强的竞争
者，你就相对处于弱势了。

　　说到底，对手实力是流动的，经常在变化。把注意力对准它，就
“逼使”你更具有反应能力、更能适应以及更灵活。在这个过程中处
理变革以及学习怎样克服转变，就会成为你行为和策略发展的一部分
本能。将领和高级执行人员就是训练来做这件事的！不幸的是，在实
际的交战和竞争环境中，很多将领显得训练不足！

　　先关注对手而不是自己，还有很多道理。把对手分析得透彻，就
算自己是较弱的一方也不一定会输！方法就是避免鸡蛋碰石头。事实
上，日本制造商在50和60年代使用的就是这招。（之一）