● 陈和兴 by tan hoe heng
the primary message for people who are interested to
invest in the stock market is that they should ignore market
timing and buy stocks for the long term. this strategy is
simple and yet effective because stocks give good returns
over a long period of time. this article will highlight
strategies on how to allocate their money which could prove
to be useful for investors between savings and stocks.
the most simple strategy is the buy-&-hold strategy. one
does not need to do anything no matter what happens after
the initial investment is made. for example, you have $100
and you then decide to keep $60 in savings and use the
remaining $40 to buy stocks. whether the stock market goes
up or down, you do not use your savings to buy more stocks
or sell stocks to put money back into savings.
if you follow this strategy strictly, it gives you
downside protection because your wealth will not fall below
$60. at the same time, it still gives you unlimited upside
potential because of the $40 that you have invested in
stocks. given that stocks in general will give you higher
returns than savings in the long run, this is why many fund
managers advise investors to put a significant portion of
their wealth in stocks and hold on to them.
another commonly mentioned strategy is the constant mix
strategy. in this case, you maintain a constant percentage
of your wealth in stocks. to use the same example, you
initially put $60 in savings (60%) and $40 in stocks (40%).
if the stock market falls by 20%, your initial $40
investment is now worth $32 and your wealth has dropped to
$92, i.e. $60 in savings (65%) and $32 in stocks (35%). note
that your percentage in stocks has fallen from 40% to 35%.
in order to maintain your initial 40%, you have to use your
savings to buy more stocks. this strategy requires you to
buy stocks when their prices fall and sell stocks when their
prices rise. put simply, it is a strategy that forces you to
follow, the rule of 'buy low and sell high'.
while the constant mix strategy seems to be the best
strategy to follow, the buy-and-hold strategy is better
under certain situations. for example, the market is
oscillating up or down, the buy-and hold strategy, rewards
you better. therefore, if you believe that the stock market
is on a long-term uptrend, the constant mix strategy is not
a good one to follow. however, the constant mix strategy is
very useful in a flat but oscillating market. for example,
you buy more stocks when the market drops and you sell them
for profits when the prices recover. this strategy takes
advantage of the up and down cycles in a market that is
going nowhere.
the third strategy is the constant proportion strategy.
basically, the strategy requires the investor to maintain
an
exposure to stocks based on a multiple of the amount he is
willing to risk. it follows a formula like this :
dollars invested in stocks = mx(present wealth - floor)
where m >1
the floor is the level of wealth where the investor cannot
tolerate risky investment and is not willing to put any a
cent in stocks. for example, the investor needs $60 (floor)
for retirement and is not willing to risk this amount in any
investment. his present wealth is $100., assume that m=2, he
will invest 2x($100-60) or $80 in stocks and save $20. if
the market drops by 10%, his stock investment will be worth
$72 and his total wealth will be $92 ($72 stocks and $20
savings). based on the formula, his stock investment should
be reduced to 2x($92-$60)or $64. thus, he has to sell $8
worth of stocks and put the money into savings.
in essence, you sell stocks as they fall and buy stocks as
they rise (many like to put it as 'buy high and sell
higher'). while this contradicts the convention of 'buy low
and sell high', it is a strategy that is very suitable for
trending market. the strategy also gives downside protection
because when the investor's wealth drops to the floor, it
requires him to keep all his money in savings.
because it forces investors to get out of stocks as the
market falls, investors enjoy some downside protection. the
constant mix strategy is a form of 'buy low/sell high'
strategy which is good for a market caught in a trading
range. as the strategy recommends buying more stocks as they
fall, there is no downside protection for investors.
unfortunately, many investors do not have any idea which
part of the market cycle they are in. thus the in-between
'buy & hold' strategy seems the most appropriate and simple.
it is also the one with the lowest transaction costs.
there is no reason to believe that any of the strategies
is best without considering the individual's requirements.
for an investor who needs a minimum sum of savings to meet
his mortgage payment next month, it will be inappropriate to
ask him to invest more of his savings in a bear market,
although the strategy might prove profitable in a year's
time.
it is however not easy to implement any of these
strategies. the money that is supposed to invest in stocks
should be put into a diversified basket of good quality
stocks. this is not possible for an investor with only
$1,000 to invest or one who does not have any expertise in
stock investments. the alternative is to invest in the stock
market through unit trusts. with unit trusts, the investor
can gain exposure to the stock market of his choice without
going through the hassle of researching and constructing a
diversified portfolio of stocks.
(this column has the support of the investment management
association of singapo
re and the stock exchange of
singapore. the writer is investment manager, tat lee asset
management limited.)
投资股票的策略
有一个基本信息要传达给有意投资股票的人：不要理会进场的时
机，买入股票做长期投资。WWw.11665.CoM这是个简单、有效的投资策略，能在长期
带来不错的回报。除了它之外，本文将介绍另两个投资策略，协助投
资者在储蓄和股票投资间分配资金。
买入后，长期持有是最简单的。采用这个策略的投资者，在买入
股票后把它搁置一旁。举例说，你有100元，把60元储蓄起来，其余
用来买股票。不管股市起还是落，你都不会买入更多的股票，或是卖
掉股票把钱存起来。
如果你紧随这个策略，财富贬值的可能性不高，因为你始终会有
60元的储蓄，而40元的股票投资又有增值的潜能。
而长远来说，股票能比储蓄带来更高的回报，因此许多基金经理
建议投资者把较高比例的财富长期投资于股票。
另一个较常用的策略是“固定结构”，投资者把投资于股票的资
金维持在固定百分比。举个简单的例子说，你原本把60元当作储蓄，
40元买股票。如果股市跌了两成，原来的投资贬值到32元，总财富也
减到92元；储蓄和股票投资的比例因此变成65%和35%。
为了维持原来的比例，你把一部分储蓄用来买更多股票。这个投
资策略让你在股价跌时买入，升高时卖出，简单的说是“低买高卖”。
“固定结构策略”可能是最好的投资策略，但在某种情况下，买
入后长期持有会更好。举例说，股市起起落落时，后者会较适用；当
你认为它正处于长期升势，“固定结构策略”并不是个好的策略。股
市若处在平平但又不时会起落的阶段时，它会是个有用的策略；跌时
你多买进，趁回升时卖掉套利。这个策略让投资者在股市走势不明朗
时，趁起落赚利。
第三个策略是固定比例策略。采用这个策略的投资者，会根据他
愿意承担的风险的倍数，维持在股市的投资。计算方程式如下：
投资于股票的款额 = m x （现有财富－不愿承担风险的财富）
m将高过1
举例说，投资者有100元的资金，准备把60元储蓄供退休后用，
这笔数目便是他不愿承担风险的财富。
假设m是2，那么这名投资者将把80元用来投资（2x（100-60））
，其余20元则存起来。
如果股市下滑10%，他在股市的投资会减至72元，而拥有的财富
总额也减至92元。根据方程式计算，股票投资应减至64元（2x（
92-60）），他因此须卖掉值8元的股票转做储蓄。
总的来说，采用这个策略的话，股市跌时你卖，股市升时你买。
它与传统的“低买高卖”策略背道而驰，较适合在股市逐渐形成一个
长期走势时使用。同时，如果投资者的总财富跌至不愿承担风险的财
富水平时，他将把所有钱存起来，控制了跌幅。
这个投资策略迫使投资者在股市下滑时离场，在一定程度上保护
他们的资金。而“固定结构策略”适合在股市波动时使用。不过，由
于它建议投资者在股市下跌时买进，不能保障他们的财富。
投资者一般上不知道股市正处于什么状态，因此属于两者之间的
买入后持有策略看来是最合用和简单的，交易成本也最低。
但在未考虑个人的需要前，不能轻易下定论说哪个策略是最好的
。对一个需要为偿还下期抵押贷款而储蓄的人来说，他虽然可能在一
年后获益，但叫他在熊市时增加在股市的投资却是不适当的。
要真正使用这些策略也不容易。投入股市的资金应分散在一篮子
素质良好的股票，但对个只有1000元资金，或缺乏股票投资经验的人
来说，这是不太可能的。因此，他们可考虑投资单位信托基金，在无
需花时间研究股市和建立多元化投资组合的情形下，就能参与股市投
资。
（作者是达利资金管理公司的投资经理。本栏是新加坡股票交易所和
新加坡投资管理协会联办的公众教育计划。）
